Robert Ritz

USD/MNT Forecast

3-month base case: 3,552.7 by Apr 2026, -0.24% versus the aligned current level.

As of Jan 2026.Aligned now 3,561.03
Forecast horizon
Forecast origin1M3M6M12M3,1003,2003,3003,4003,5003,6003,700Jan 24Jan 25Jan 26Jan 27
Base case
3,552.7 by Apr 2026
Vs current
-0.24% vs 3,561.03
80% range
3,527.0 to 3,578.5
Latest miss
22.6 at Jan 2026
Trust

How the selected horizon has held up.

3M backtests beat no-change at 0.57x of baseline RMSE and get direction right 80% of the time.

RMSE vs no-change
0.57x
Direction right
80%
Recent MAE
29.6 MNT
Coverage 80 / 95
50% / 50%
Champion
extra trees ยท feature panel rich
Seeded backtest vs actualSeeded span Jun 2024 to Jan 2026
3,3003,4003,5003,6003,700Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26
ActualSeeded backtestPublished live
Drivers

What seems to be moving the forecast.

Inflation pressure: Higher inflation pressure is usually associated with a weaker tugrik later on. Main signal now: CPI inflation (y/y).

  • Inflation pressure. Higher inflation pressure is usually associated with a weaker tugrik later on.
  • Trade balance. A stronger trade position usually adds support for the tugrik.
  • Global dollar strength. A stronger global dollar backdrop often pushes USD/MNT higher as well.
  • Capital and external flows. Stronger capital and external financing tends to cushion the tugrik.
MethodHow the forecast is produced and how to read it
  • The model only uses information that would have been available at forecast time.
  • Lower RMSE ratios are better. Anything below 1.00x beats a no-change baseline for this horizon.
  • Forecast bands are uncertainty ranges, not promises.
FreshnessUpdate timing across the underlying inputs
USD/MNT monthlythrough Feb 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
CNY/MNT monthlythrough Feb 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
NSO foreign tradethrough Jan 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
NSO CPIthrough Jan 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
NSO industrythrough Jan 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
Global factorsthrough Mar 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
Long-history panelthrough Jan 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
Forecast packagethrough Jan 2026Updated Mar 6, 2026
Raw signals & USD/CNYUnderlying features and the comparison benchmark

CNY/MNT also shows signal in this study, especially beyond the shortest horizon, which suggests the story is broader than the U.S. dollar alone.

0.00.20.40.60.81.013612
USD/MNT championCNY/MNT champion

Signals pushing toward weaker tugrik

Higher values of these features tend to line up with a higher USD/MNT, which means a weaker tugrik.

CPI inflation (y/y)100% stable
Broad USD index (y/y)75% stable
Coal price100% stable

Signals supporting the tugrik

Higher values of these features tend to line up with a lower USD/MNT, which means a stronger tugrik.

Trade balance share100% stable
Net errors and omissions (3m avg)100% stable
Coal price
extra_trees
CPI inflation (y/y)
extra_trees
Coal price (y/y)
extra_trees
Brent oil price
extra_trees
Broad USD index (y/y)
extra_trees
DownloadsPublic artifacts for reuse
Dashboard JSONCurrent forecast CSVForecast vintages CSVBacktest summary CSV