{
  "meta": {
    "run_timestamp": "2026-03-06T04:33:55.758085+00:00",
    "aligned_as_of_period": "2026-01",
    "source_updates": [
      {
        "key": "usd_mnt_monthly",
        "label": "USD/MNT monthly",
        "last_period": "2026-02",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:30:35.418597+00:00",
        "value_column": "usd_mnt"
      },
      {
        "key": "cny_mnt_monthly",
        "label": "CNY/MNT monthly",
        "last_period": "2026-02",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:15.513246+00:00",
        "value_column": "cny_mnt"
      },
      {
        "key": "nso_trade_monthly",
        "label": "NSO foreign trade",
        "last_period": "2026-01",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:04.826254+00:00",
        "value_column": "exports"
      },
      {
        "key": "nso_cpi_headline_monthly",
        "label": "NSO CPI",
        "last_period": "2026-01",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:04.819354+00:00",
        "value_column": "cpi_yoy_percent"
      },
      {
        "key": "nso_industry_monthly",
        "label": "NSO industry",
        "last_period": "2026-01",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:04.831431+00:00",
        "value_column": "industrial_output_total"
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      {
        "key": "global_factors_monthly",
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        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:15.061026+00:00",
        "value_column": "dxy_broad"
      },
      {
        "key": "feature_panel_long_history",
        "label": "Long-history panel",
        "last_period": "2026-01",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:31:15.554202+00:00",
        "value_column": "usd_mnt"
      },
      {
        "key": "forecast_study_live_forecasts",
        "label": "Forecast package",
        "last_period": "2026-01",
        "updated_at": "2026-03-06T04:33:54.482238+00:00",
        "value_column": "forecast_point"
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    "staleness_status": "watch",
    "latest_spot_period": "2026-02"
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        "target_period": "2026-07",
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        "stability_note": "Useful signal, but more modest than 3 months."
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      {
        "target": "usd_mnt",
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        "horizon_months": 12,
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        "target_period": "2027-01",
        "pct_change_from_current": -5.066793395042158,
        "is_stable": false,
        "stability_note": "Shown with caution. This horizon is less stable across runs."
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        "period": "2023-08",
        "usd_mnt": 3469.98
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        "period": "2023-09",
        "usd_mnt": 3466.08
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        "usd_mnt": 3440.64
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        "usd_mnt": 3421.21
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        "period": "2024-01",
        "usd_mnt": 3407.37
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        "period": "2024-02",
        "usd_mnt": 3391.84
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      {
        "period": "2024-03",
        "usd_mnt": 3376.22
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      {
        "period": "2024-04",
        "usd_mnt": 3376.53
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      {
        "period": "2024-05",
        "usd_mnt": 3381.19
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        "period": "2024-06",
        "usd_mnt": 3381.11
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        "period": "2024-07",
        "usd_mnt": 3380.86
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      {
        "period": "2024-08",
        "usd_mnt": 3380.98
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      {
        "period": "2024-09",
        "usd_mnt": 3380.95
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      {
        "period": "2024-10",
        "usd_mnt": 3392.02
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        "period": "2024-11",
        "usd_mnt": 3412.77
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        "period": "2024-12",
        "usd_mnt": 3417.93
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        "period": "2025-01",
        "usd_mnt": 3431.77
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      {
        "period": "2025-02",
        "usd_mnt": 3459.14
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      {
        "period": "2025-03",
        "usd_mnt": 3475.38
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      {
        "period": "2025-04",
        "usd_mnt": 3541.6
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      {
        "period": "2025-05",
        "usd_mnt": 3572.77
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      {
        "period": "2025-06",
        "usd_mnt": 3577.67
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      {
        "period": "2025-07",
        "usd_mnt": 3584.83
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      {
        "period": "2025-08",
        "usd_mnt": 3592.14
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        "period": "2025-09",
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        "period": "2025-10",
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        "usd_mnt": 3571.66
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        "period": "2025-12",
        "usd_mnt": 3549.18
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      {
        "period": "2026-01",
        "usd_mnt": 3561.03
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    ],
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      {
        "target": "usd_mnt",
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        "horizon_months": 3,
        "current_level": 3561.029999999999,
        "champion_panel": "feature_panel_rich",
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        "forecast_point": 3552.6594476204264,
        "interval80_lo": 3527.0229289837766,
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        "ensemble_mean": 3537.7276409649203,
        "ensemble_min": 3515.937591747262,
        "ensemble_max": 3552.6594476204264,
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        "target_period": "2026-04",
        "pct_change_from_current": -0.2350598669366044,
        "is_stable": true,
        "stability_note": "Clearest signal in this run."
      },
      {
        "target": "usd_mnt",
        "as_of_period": "2026-01",
        "horizon_months": 6,
        "current_level": 3561.029999999999,
        "champion_panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
        "champion_family": "pca_linear",
        "forecast_point": 3474.2266538457934,
        "interval80_lo": 3405.337733705068,
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        "ensemble_mean": 3370.9553404628605,
        "ensemble_min": 3265.903353942325,
        "ensemble_max": 3474.2266538457934,
        "top_models": "pca_linear; lasso; elastic_net",
        "target_period": "2026-07",
        "pct_change_from_current": -2.4375909822215935,
        "is_stable": true,
        "stability_note": "Useful signal, but more modest than 3 months."
      },
      {
        "target": "usd_mnt",
        "as_of_period": "2026-01",
        "horizon_months": 12,
        "current_level": 3561.029999999999,
        "champion_panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
        "champion_family": "hist_gbm",
        "forecast_point": 3380.599967164529,
        "interval80_lo": 3232.818467484134,
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        "ensemble_mean": 3434.240254817852,
        "ensemble_min": 3318.744471581803,
        "ensemble_max": 3603.3763257072246,
        "top_models": "hist_gbm; elastic_net; extra_trees",
        "target_period": "2027-01",
        "pct_change_from_current": -5.066793395042158,
        "is_stable": false,
        "stability_note": "Shown with caution. This horizon is less stable across runs."
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  "history": {
    "recent_window_months": 48,
    "actual_series": [
      {
        "period": "2015-01",
        "usd_mnt": 1932.7
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      {
        "period": "2015-02",
        "usd_mnt": 1961.75
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      {
        "period": "2015-03",
        "usd_mnt": 1986.22
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      {
        "period": "2015-04",
        "usd_mnt": 1975.83
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      {
        "period": "2015-05",
        "usd_mnt": 1939.28
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      {
        "period": "2015-06",
        "usd_mnt": 1903.29
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      {
        "period": "2015-07",
        "usd_mnt": 1978.28
      },
      {
        "period": "2015-08",
        "usd_mnt": 1990.48
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      {
        "period": "2015-09",
        "usd_mnt": 1993.79
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      {
        "period": "2015-10",
        "usd_mnt": 1993.35
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      {
        "period": "2015-11",
        "usd_mnt": 1992.9
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      {
        "period": "2015-12",
        "usd_mnt": 1995.84
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      {
        "period": "2016-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2003.22
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      {
        "period": "2016-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2024.25
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      {
        "period": "2016-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2046.35
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      {
        "period": "2016-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2011.99
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      {
        "period": "2016-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2005.96
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      {
        "period": "2016-06",
        "usd_mnt": 1964.93
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      {
        "period": "2016-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2031.9
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      {
        "period": "2016-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2189.05
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      {
        "period": "2016-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2243.98
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      {
        "period": "2016-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2307.8
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      {
        "period": "2016-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2434.32
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      {
        "period": "2016-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2482.57
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      {
        "period": "2017-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2488.38
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      {
        "period": "2017-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2478.29
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      {
        "period": "2017-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2459.55
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      {
        "period": "2017-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2421.85
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      {
        "period": "2017-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2413.06
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      {
        "period": "2017-06",
        "usd_mnt": 2367.93
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      {
        "period": "2017-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2409.41
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      {
        "period": "2017-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2443.53
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      {
        "period": "2017-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2454.29
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      {
        "period": "2017-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2458.69
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      {
        "period": "2017-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2448.86
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      {
        "period": "2017-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2433.49
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      {
        "period": "2018-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2425.77
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      {
        "period": "2018-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2402.9
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      {
        "period": "2018-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2395.37
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      {
        "period": "2018-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2394.65
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      {
        "period": "2018-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2405.19
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      {
        "period": "2018-06",
        "usd_mnt": 2432.3
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      {
        "period": "2018-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2462.83
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      {
        "period": "2018-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2464.12
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      {
        "period": "2018-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2503.31
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      {
        "period": "2018-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2564.14
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      {
        "period": "2018-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2581.88
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      {
        "period": "2018-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2637.35
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      {
        "period": "2019-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2649.68
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      {
        "period": "2019-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2633.37
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      {
        "period": "2019-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2632.51
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      {
        "period": "2019-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2634.93
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      {
        "period": "2019-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2645.16
      },
      {
        "period": "2019-06",
        "usd_mnt": 2654.47
      },
      {
        "period": "2019-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2661.55
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      {
        "period": "2019-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2670.54
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      {
        "period": "2019-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2669.68
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      {
        "period": "2019-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2678.01
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      {
        "period": "2019-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2705.26
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      {
        "period": "2019-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2727.34
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      {
        "period": "2020-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2744.38
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      {
        "period": "2020-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2756.52
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      {
        "period": "2020-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2769.03
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      {
        "period": "2020-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2783.16
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      {
        "period": "2020-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2797.25
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      {
        "period": "2020-06",
        "usd_mnt": 2816.26
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      {
        "period": "2020-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2836.41
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      {
        "period": "2020-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.11
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      {
        "period": "2020-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2854.17
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      {
        "period": "2020-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2853.6
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      {
        "period": "2020-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2850.04
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      {
        "period": "2020-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.55
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      {
        "period": "2021-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.82
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      {
        "period": "2021-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.73
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      {
        "period": "2021-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.64
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      {
        "period": "2021-04",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.89
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      {
        "period": "2021-05",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.57
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      {
        "period": "2021-06",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.12
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      {
        "period": "2021-07",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.97
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      {
        "period": "2021-08",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.91
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      {
        "period": "2021-09",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.94
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      {
        "period": "2021-10",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.97
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      {
        "period": "2021-11",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.95
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      {
        "period": "2021-12",
        "usd_mnt": 2848.96
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      {
        "period": "2022-01",
        "usd_mnt": 2849.36
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      {
        "period": "2022-02",
        "usd_mnt": 2857.17
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      {
        "period": "2022-03",
        "usd_mnt": 2901.83
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      {
        "period": "2022-04",
        "usd_mnt": 3041.84
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      {
        "period": "2022-05",
        "usd_mnt": 3110.22
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      {
        "period": "2022-06",
        "usd_mnt": 3124.25
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      {
        "period": "2022-07",
        "usd_mnt": 3153.03
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      {
        "period": "2022-08",
        "usd_mnt": 3185.72
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      {
        "period": "2022-09",
        "usd_mnt": 3257.1
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      {
        "period": "2022-10",
        "usd_mnt": 3369.9
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      {
        "period": "2022-11",
        "usd_mnt": 3406.43
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      {
        "period": "2022-12",
        "usd_mnt": 3431.29
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      {
        "period": "2023-01",
        "usd_mnt": 3467.21
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      {
        "period": "2023-02",
        "usd_mnt": 3508.06
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      {
        "period": "2023-03",
        "usd_mnt": 3524.98
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      {
        "period": "2023-04",
        "usd_mnt": 3496.41
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      {
        "period": "2023-05",
        "usd_mnt": 3461.18
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      {
        "period": "2023-06",
        "usd_mnt": 3438.26
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  },
  "drivers": {
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            "feature": "coal_price",
            "label": "Coal price",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
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            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.003035999925601,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
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          {
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            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0009793597609251,
            "stability": 1.0,
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            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Higher values of this feature tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "cny_mnt_mom",
            "label": "CNY/MNT monthly change",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
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            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0007101797573771,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Moves in the yuan-related exchange rate tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
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        ],
        "negative": [
          {
            "feature": "financial_account_3mma",
            "label": "Financial account (3m avg)",
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            "coefficient": -0.0013732198170632,
            "stability": 0.7727272727272727,
            "strength": 0.001061124404094291,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Changes in the external balance tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "net_errors_3mma",
            "label": "Net errors and omissions (3m avg)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0010705835570304,
            "stability": 0.9090909090909092,
            "strength": 0.0009732577791185456,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Higher values of this feature tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "trade_balance_share",
            "label": "Trade balance share",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0001780354167361,
            "stability": 0.9545454545454546,
            "strength": 0.00016994289779355,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Trade conditions tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          }
        ],
        "tree": [
          {
            "feature": "coal_price",
            "label": "Coal price",
            "importance": 0.2686842605786478,
            "normalized_importance": 1.0,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "cpi_yoy_percent",
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            "importance": 0.0815209548346482,
            "normalized_importance": 0.3034080026090171,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
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          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price",
            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "importance": 0.0641632623045082,
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            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "coal_price_yoy",
            "label": "Coal price (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.0187662182332964,
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            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
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          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad",
            "label": "Broad USD index",
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            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
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      },
      "3": {
        "positive": [
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            "feature": "cpi_yoy_percent",
            "label": "CPI inflation (y/y)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0058926739007653,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0058926739007653,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Inflation pressure tends to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad_yoy",
            "label": "Broad USD index (y/y)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0056586479737709,
            "stability": 0.75,
            "strength": 0.004243985980328175,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "A stronger broad U.S. dollar tends to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "coal_price",
            "label": "Coal price",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0025702922230194,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0025702922230194,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
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        ],
        "negative": [
          {
            "feature": "trade_balance_share",
            "label": "Trade balance share",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0047130886603354,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0047130886603354,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Trade conditions tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "net_errors_3mma",
            "label": "Net errors and omissions (3m avg)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.002880743099533,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.002880743099533,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "Higher values of this feature tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad",
            "label": "Broad USD index",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0,
            "stability": 0.0,
            "strength": 0.0,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich",
            "interpretation": "A stronger broad U.S. dollar tends to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          }
        ],
        "tree": [
          {
            "feature": "coal_price",
            "label": "Coal price",
            "importance": 0.1339644792749539,
            "normalized_importance": 1.0,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "cpi_yoy_percent",
            "label": "CPI inflation (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.1163494386034788,
            "normalized_importance": 0.8685096171252881,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "coal_price_yoy",
            "label": "Coal price (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.0387003124622559,
            "normalized_importance": 0.2888848795718892,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price",
            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "importance": 0.0238938618566105,
            "normalized_importance": 0.17835968150609396,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
          },
          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad_yoy",
            "label": "Broad USD index (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.0229666854563365,
            "normalized_importance": 0.1714386200031337,
            "family": "extra_trees",
            "panel": "feature_panel_rich"
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        ]
      },
      "6": {
        "positive": [
          {
            "feature": "coal_price_yoy",
            "label": "Coal price (y/y)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0106712523031353,
            "stability": 0.9761904761904762,
            "strength": 0.010417174867346364,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad_mom",
            "label": "Broad USD index (m/m)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0008496441546815,
            "stability": 0.9285714285714286,
            "strength": 0.0007889552864899643,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "A stronger broad U.S. dollar tends to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price",
            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0010095933117359,
            "stability": 0.2261904761904762,
            "strength": 0.00022836039194026308,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Higher values of this feature tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          }
        ],
        "negative": [
          {
            "feature": "copper_price_yoy",
            "label": "Copper price (y/y)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0183022100532434,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0183022100532434,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "copper_price_mom",
            "label": "Copper price (m/m)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0106795677728337,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0106795677728337,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "financial_account_3mma",
            "label": "Financial account (3m avg)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0097170251521534,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0097170251521534,
            "family": "lasso",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Changes in the external balance tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
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        ],
        "tree": [
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            "label": "Financial account (3m avg)",
            "importance": 0.2557770220073806,
            "normalized_importance": 1.0,
            "family": "random_forest",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "copper_price",
            "label": "Copper price",
            "importance": 0.0694682477111212,
            "normalized_importance": 0.2715969056404005,
            "family": "random_forest",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "gold_price",
            "label": "Gold price",
            "importance": 0.0445177587282783,
            "normalized_importance": 0.17404909314720896,
            "family": "random_forest",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price",
            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "importance": 0.0372567073665147,
            "normalized_importance": 0.1456608849149852,
            "family": "random_forest",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "coal_price_yoy",
            "label": "Coal price (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.028400232239698,
            "normalized_importance": 0.11103511963978724,
            "family": "random_forest",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          }
        ]
      },
      "12": {
        "positive": [
          {
            "feature": "coal_price_yoy",
            "label": "Coal price (y/y)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0431316729079342,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0431316729079342,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "copper_price",
            "label": "Copper price",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0096553496117617,
            "stability": 0.8170731707317073,
            "strength": 0.00788912712180529,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price_yoy",
            "label": "Brent oil price (y/y)",
            "direction": "weaker_tugrik",
            "coefficient": 0.0101237298291902,
            "stability": 0.6097560975609756,
            "strength": 0.006173005993408659,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Higher values of this feature tend to line up with higher future USD/MNT (a weaker tugrik)."
          }
        ],
        "negative": [
          {
            "feature": "copper_price_yoy",
            "label": "Copper price (y/y)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0712205255330571,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0712205255330571,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "gold_price_yoy",
            "label": "Gold price (y/y)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0313393047557384,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0313393047557384,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "Commodity-price moves tend to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          },
          {
            "feature": "dxy_broad_yoy",
            "label": "Broad USD index (y/y)",
            "direction": "stronger_tugrik",
            "coefficient": -0.0264358827528516,
            "stability": 1.0,
            "strength": 0.0264358827528516,
            "family": "elastic_net",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history",
            "interpretation": "A stronger broad U.S. dollar tends to line up with lower future USD/MNT (a stronger tugrik)."
          }
        ],
        "tree": [
          {
            "feature": "financial_account_3mma",
            "label": "Financial account (3m avg)",
            "importance": 0.2358857941187958,
            "normalized_importance": 1.0,
            "family": "hist_gbm",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "oil_brent_price",
            "label": "Brent oil price",
            "importance": 0.0862876133552507,
            "normalized_importance": 0.36580250064484554,
            "family": "hist_gbm",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "copper_price",
            "label": "Copper price",
            "importance": 0.0660906055900898,
            "normalized_importance": 0.28018052480432765,
            "family": "hist_gbm",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "gold_price_yoy",
            "label": "Gold price (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.0659666536661795,
            "normalized_importance": 0.27965505049853767,
            "family": "hist_gbm",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          },
          {
            "feature": "neer_yoy",
            "label": "NEER (y/y)",
            "importance": 0.061433999030179,
            "normalized_importance": 0.26043958797806993,
            "family": "hist_gbm",
            "panel": "feature_panel_long_history"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "explainers": {
      "weaker_tugrik": "Higher values of these features tend to line up with a higher USD/MNT, which means a weaker tugrik.",
      "stronger_tugrik": "Higher values of these features tend to line up with a lower USD/MNT, which means a stronger tugrik."
    }
  },
  "comparison": {
    "horizons": [
      {
        "horizon_months": 1,
        "usd_champion_ratio": 0.8251319149836113,
        "cny_champion_ratio": 0.796344440692431,
        "usd_best_realized_ratio": 0.6409445538429855,
        "cny_best_realized_ratio": 0.6694145134122406
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 3,
        "usd_champion_ratio": 0.570349386419456,
        "cny_champion_ratio": 0.8862114768082145,
        "usd_best_realized_ratio": 0.4719923422149311,
        "cny_best_realized_ratio": 0.4585083919157259
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 6,
        "usd_champion_ratio": 0.7989510449986544,
        "cny_champion_ratio": 0.5153349362238107,
        "usd_best_realized_ratio": 0.4682979477891217,
        "cny_best_realized_ratio": 0.5153349362238107
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 12,
        "usd_champion_ratio": 1.023543018021137,
        "cny_champion_ratio": 0.3163932256514901,
        "usd_best_realized_ratio": 0.2072104606817642,
        "cny_best_realized_ratio": 0.3163932256514901
      }
    ],
    "takeaway": "CNY/MNT also shows signal in this study, especially beyond the shortest horizon, which suggests the story is broader than the U.S. dollar alone.",
    "usd_family_summary": [
      {
        "family": "extra_trees",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.823172061243644,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.6703286869273646
      },
      {
        "family": "pca_linear",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.8355221558233318,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.6927861690174986
      },
      {
        "family": "hist_gbm",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.8938969351735906,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.7811549935536976
      },
      {
        "family": "elastic_net",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.8948159805303623,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.933015744184158
      },
      {
        "family": "random_walk",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.0,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.0
      },
      {
        "family": "lasso",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.0480709594234394,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.7984918049283123
      },
      {
        "family": "autoreg",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.056393597383355,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.8756148795760167
      },
      {
        "family": "ridge",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.0802910708771798,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.1543643551692642
      },
      {
        "family": "random_forest",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.154642984558284,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.7388980404155532
      },
      {
        "family": "random_walk_drift",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.4934791617124126,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 0.8334901824776592
      },
      {
        "family": "ols",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 2.7500335926766373,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 1.33010652883804
      },
      {
        "family": "mlp",
        "val_rmse_vs_random_walk": 17.801187386355654,
        "test_rmse_vs_random_walk": 12.20330619499792
      }
    ]
  },
  "downloads": {
    "dashboard_json": "/data/tugrik/dashboard.json",
    "current_forecast_csv": "/data/tugrik/current_forecast.csv",
    "forecast_vintages_csv": "/data/tugrik/forecast_vintages.csv",
    "backtest_summary_csv": "/data/tugrik/backtest_summary.csv"
  }
}